The general rule regarding parlays is: DON'T.
Parlays generally carry an increased house edge than straight bets, therefore you give the book a bigger advantage over you once you play them. That, alone, is reason enough to suppress the misplaced feelings of greed combined with fear that often lead to betting parlays. People think they're risking less with parlays, but they are not. They believe they can win more with parlays, but they cannot. The higher win with parlays is far outweighed by the bigger probability of losing. Parlay bettors are in fact risking more, with less probability of collecting.
A parlay is not an individual bet. It really is two bets -- a one-unit bet using one team and a two-unit bet on the other. Which team gets the two-unit bet? In point-spread betting at constant money odds, if both teams win or both teams lose it doesn't matter which team gets the double bet. When one team wins and something team loses, however, the double bet is presumed to possess been on the loser. How smart is that for the bettor? Go ahead, create a parlay. We'll wait until both games are over, and in case there is a split we'll put the double bet on the loser. If your bookmaker sold you a parlay with that line, how many of you'll still make the bet?
A parlay can be bad money management. In a parlay you either bet double on the next team, or nothing on that same team, depending upon whether the first game won or lost. That adds some luck to your betting that doesn't have to be there. The skilled handicapper is always wanting to make smart investments. He tries to get rid of the result of luck to the best extent possible in order to make his results as predictable as you possibly can.
Much like every rule, however, there are exceptions. The exception to the rule regarding parlays occurs when the two bets are co-dependent.
I knew one bookmaker who was taken for thousands because he didn't understand the co-dependency of certain bets. He allowed a player to consistently parlay the first half with the overall game. The ball player parlayed totals by combining the over in the initial half with the over in the game, and the under in the first half with under in the game. Both parlays were made in the same game. Each time the player won he would win 2.6 times his bet. Betting $100 on each parlay, if one of these won, the player would win $260 and lose $100 on the other parlay for a net win of $160. He could never win both parlays. If he lost both parlays he'd lose $200.
Initially, this appeared to be a great chance of the book. The normal coin-flip probability of winning one parlay out of your two are 50-50. So far as the bookie was concerned the bettor should be winning $160 half the time, and losing $200 half the time. The bettor, however, making $500 parlays, was ahead more than $20,000 after six months, and the book begun to look at what the bettor was doing more carefully.
The issue for the bookmaker was that the two halves of every parlay were co-dependent. At the end of the initial half, the bettor was hardly ever in a 50-50 situation.
Take the Thursday night game between Utah and Air Force. The game total was 53 and the initial half total was 27. At the end of the initial half, the score was 31-21, for a total of 52 first-half points. The first half of one of the parlays, the "over" in the first half was successful. For the parlay probability to be correct, there should now be considered a 50-50 possibility of winning the "over" for the game. Obviously the chances of winning the "over" in the game weren't 50-50 but better than 99% and only the "over." The ball player only had a need to win the first half of the parlay to be virtually assured he would collect 2.6 times his money instead of just $10 for $11.
Before you rush out to use this, be aware that most off-shore books are much too smart to enable you to parlay first half to game. Should they do permit you to do this, start worrying about collecting because that book will soon be taken up to the cleaners.
There are, however, some less obvious co-dependent parlays that may be made at many books. One kind of co-dependent parlay is the parlay of the medial side and total in the same game.
Any game where the total is less than double the spread can give you an advantage in parlaying side to total in the same game. We've already discussed, in a prior article, how exactly to use these anomalous side and total combinations to hedge one another and increase your win with hardly any increase in risk. This type of bet, however, required that you have an opinion on the side or the total. Parlaying is another method to increase your potential win on these games, or to create a potential win should you have no opinion.
You can find two games this Saturday that qualify. They're Virigina -25 over Duke with a total of 48 �, and Kansas St. -24 � vs. North Texas with a complete 46 �).
In the Virginia game, if you believe that Virginia will cover the 25 points, they must hold Duke to no more than 11 points or the game will go over the full total. The more likely it becomes through the game that Virginia covers 25 points, the more likely it becomes that the overall game will go over 48 �. The wider Virginia's winning margin, the much more likely the game will review. If you want Virginia to cover the spread, and you also believe that Duke will never be shut out, then your possibility of winning a parlay on Virginia and the over are higher than the normal 25%. Likewise, if the scoring stays low, it is not as likely that Virginia will cover the 25 points. As a result, the probability that a parlay of the under with the underdog will win is higher than the normal 25%.
Assuming you have no opinion on the overall game, you can parlay the favorite with the "over" and the underdog with the "under" and collect sufficiently often to exceed the losses when both parlays lose. In the only other game meeting the qualifications this week -- Friday's game between California -30 against New Mexico State with a total of 58 -- the under has recently won with the underdog for a winning two-parlay spread.
The closer the posted total is to the spread privately, the better win-rate will undoubtedly be on the parlay "spread" bet. nhà cái 123win -dependency in side to total parlays isn't as strong as parlaying first half and game totals (if it were, most books would not allow such bets), but you will find a sufficient co-dependency in the games with low totals and high spreads to make the strategy profitable long-term.
Not all bookmakers will allow you to parlay the medial side to the total in exactly the same game, because a growing number of are realizing these bets are sometimes co-dependent. But, enough books still do allow such bets for you to consider including such bets in your professional betting arsenal.
If your bookmaker provides "if/reverse" bets, you can replace the parlay bet having an "if/reverse" bet and achieve greater success.