The general rule regarding parlays is: DON'T.
Parlays generally carry a higher house edge than straight bets, therefore you give the book a more impressive advantage over you once you play them. That, by itself, is reason enough to suppress the misplaced feelings of greed combined with fear that often lead to betting parlays. People think they're risking less with parlays, however they aren't. They believe they can win more with parlays, but they cannot. The bigger win with parlays is far outweighed by the bigger possibility of losing. Parlay bettors are in fact risking more, with less possibility of collecting.
A parlay is not an individual bet. It really is two bets -- a one-unit bet on one team and a two-unit bet on the other. Which team gets the two-unit bet? In point-spread betting at constant money odds, if both teams win or both teams lose no matter which team gets the double bet. When one team wins and something team loses, however, the double bet is presumed to have been on the loser. How smart is that for the bettor? Go ahead, create a parlay. We'll wait until both games are over, and in case there is a split we'll put the double bet on the loser. If your bookmaker sold you a parlay with that line, just how many of you'll still make the bet?
A parlay can be bad money management. In a parlay you either bet double on the second team, or nothing on that same team, dependant on if the first game won or lost. That adds an element of luck to your betting that doesn't need to be there. The skilled handicapper is definitely wanting to make smart investments. He tries to eliminate the result of luck to the best extent possible in order to make his results as predictable as you possibly can.
As with every rule, however, there are exceptions. The exception to the rule regarding parlays occurs when the two bets are co-dependent.
I knew one bookmaker who was simply taken for thousands because he didn't understand the co-dependency of certain bets. He allowed a player to consistently parlay the initial half with the game. The player parlayed totals by combining the over in the initial half with the over in the overall game, and the under in the first half with under in the overall game. Both parlays were made in the same game. Every time the player won he'd win 2.6 times his bet. Betting $100 on each parlay, if one of them won, the player would win $260 and lose $100 on the other parlay for a net win of $160. He could never win both parlays. If he lost both parlays he would lose $200.
At first glance, this were a great chance of the book. The standard coin-flip probability of winning one parlay from the two are 50-50. As far as the bookie was concerned the bettor should be winning $160 half the time, and losing $200 half the time. The bettor, however, making $500 parlays, was ahead more than $20,000 after 6 months, and the book started to look at what the bettor was doing more carefully.
The issue for the bookmaker was that both halves of every parlay were co-dependent. By the end of the initial half, the bettor was hardly ever in a 50-50 situation.
Take the Thursday night game between Utah and Air Force. The game total was 53 and the initial half total was 27. By the end of the initial half, the score was 31-21, for a complete of 52 first-half points. The initial half of one of the parlays, the "over" in the initial half was a winner. For the parlay probability to be correct, there should now be considered a 50-50 probability of winning the "over" for the overall game. Obviously the chances of winning the "over" in the overall game were not 50-50 but much better than 99% and only the "over." The player only needed to win the first half of the parlay to be virtually assured he would collect 2.6 times his money instead of just $10 for $11.
Before you rush out to use this, be aware that most off-shore books are far too smart to let you parlay first half to game. Should they do permit you to do this, start fretting about collecting because that book will soon be taken to the cleaners.
There are, however, some less obvious co-dependent parlays that may be made at many books. One kind of co-dependent parlay may be the parlay of the medial side and total in the same game.
Any game in which the total is less than double the spread can provide you an edge in parlaying side to total in the same game. We've already discussed, in a prior article, how exactly to use these anomalous side and total combinations to hedge each other and increase your win with very little increase in risk. Such tylekeonhacai asia , however, required that you have an opinion on the side or the full total. Parlaying is another method to increase your potential win on these games, or to develop a potential win in case you have no opinion.
There are two games this Saturday that qualify. They're Virigina -25 over Duke with a complete of 48 �, and Kansas St. -24 � vs. North Texas with a complete 46 �).
In the Virginia game, if you believe that Virginia will cover the 25 points, they must hold Duke to only 11 points or the game will go over the total. The much more likely it becomes during the game that Virginia will cover 25 points, the much more likely it becomes that the overall game will go over 48 �. The wider Virginia's winning margin, the much more likely the game will review. If you want Virginia to cover the spread, and you also believe that Duke will never be shut out, in that case your possibility of winning a parlay on Virginia and the over are higher than the normal 25%. Likewise, if the scoring stays low, it is not as likely that Virginia will cover the 25 points. Therefore, the probability that a parlay of the under with the underdog will win is greater than the normal 25%.
In case you have no opinion on the overall game, you can parlay the favorite with the "over" and the underdog with the "under" and collect sufficiently often to exceed the losses when both parlays lose. In the only other game meeting the qualifications this week -- Friday's game between California -30 against New Mexico State with a complete of 58 -- the under has recently won with the underdog for a winning two-parlay spread.
The closer the posted total is to the spread privately, the better win-rate will be on the parlay "spread" bet. The co-dependency in side to total parlays is not as strong as parlaying first half and game totals (if it were, most books wouldn't normally allow such bets), but there is a sufficient co-dependency in the games with low totals and high spreads to make the strategy profitable long-term.
Not all bookmakers will help you to parlay the side to the full total in exactly the same game, because more and more are realizing these bets are occasionally co-dependent. But, enough books still do allow such bets so you might consider including such bets in your professional betting arsenal.
If your bookmaker provides "if/reverse" bets, it is possible to replace the parlay bet with an "if/reverse" bet and achieve greater success.