There are countless 'handicapping services' in the business of providing people who have parlays. They will tout win rates much like probably the most impressive straight wager cappers. Needless to say, so as to they make reference to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On a number of these sites you may even have the privilege of working with some type of royalty in neuro-scientific parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will undoubtedly be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The truth is that exotic wagers keep sports books in business. Next time you are in Vegas have a look at the discarded tickets you see spread everywhere. It's safe to assume that might be nearly all these losers are made up of such bets placed on both sports and racing. Of all sucker bets open to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of a huge payout while disregarding the fact that there is absolutely no reasonable expectation of any return on the investment.
The house edge on a typical straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Compared with many table games this is actually a fairly high percentage. Many table games and slots provide a better value for the average bettor placing a random wager. However, we all know that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing some dice at the back wall.
Chance plays a role in everything the house has to offer. Additionally, there are steps that may be taken to decrease the edge in only about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as skill and preparation more useful than the sports book. The edge on a straight wager could be reversed in the bettors favor by utilizing statistics and expertise in a sport. However, a double digit house edge can never be overcome in the end.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can see every parlay it is possible to possibly bet has a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages tend to be more in line with keno, and they are equally impossible to overcome over time. There is no mystery surrounding the planet of parlays. Bettors are attracted to risking handful of money for large payouts. The games that are most often played in the casino are slot machines that offer thousands and even millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of these bettors is 'Go big, or go back home.' The casino is clearly pleased to oblige as an incredible number of bettors go back home with nothing in their pockets every year.
It really is fair to assume that the largest number of losing bets that a book accepts are exotic wagers of add up to or double the home minimum. This is due to most bettors do not have a meaningful bankroll reserve for sports betting. Since they don't believe they can make any real cash by placing $25-50 on several games per week they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. Using this method they essentially ensure a significant loss by the finish of the season. Meanwhile, should they only placed straight wagers at that same level they might limit their potential losses to a few units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they're keeping the size of their bets low they're not taking on a significant risk. This analysis is flawed since it ignores several factors. Most of all, it really is my experience that most bettors usually do not place just one parlay per week. In football this implies at the least 34 parlays are put through the regular season. In baseball that number can simply exceed 100. With a low unit bet this is still a dangerous amount of wagers to put with this type of high house edge. For instance, in case you are placing only 5 team parlays your expectation ought to be to lose about $35 for every $100 you wager. Because the amount of bets you place increases it really is inevitable that you'll hit that $100 mark several times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will usually result in upping your losses or erasing any profits you managed to make on straight wagers. In Hi88 , I had a client who broke even with increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He were able to do this by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. That is an expensive lesson to understand especially when you consider I issued an identical warning to him.
If you are likely to follow his lead and continue using parlays I have a few pointers that may help you in the long term. First of all, the best value of all parlays is clearly the three team parlay. The difference between your house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, however the payout is more than twice as much. If you take a look at the graph you should understand why I'd never bet a parlay of 4 teams or more. However, if you're going to make this investment listed below are two useful tips:
If you are going to bet a 4 or 5 5 team parlay, always make it 6 as well as 10. The difference between your house edge to add 1 or 2 2 more teams is within 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The home edge on a 10 teamer is virtually the same as a 4 team parlay, but the actual probability of hitting it are over 1,000 to 1 1.
If you are going to throw your cash away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. THE HOME edge is approximately 10 points lower than all three of these bets and it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while working to achieve them is the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed must be kept in check in order to be successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. It is possible to chase high returns while assuming plenty of unnecessary risk. Or you can minimize your contact with a few units while maintaining a reasonable expectation to increase your bankroll by 50%...The choice is yours.