"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that if your book offers "if/reverses," it is possible to play those instead of parlays. Some of you might not learn how to bet an "if/reverse." A full explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, along with the situations in which each is best..
An "if" bet is exactly what it sounds like. You bet Team A and when it wins then you place the same amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at different times is a type of "if" bet where you bet on the initial team, and when it wins you bet double on the next team. With a genuine "if" bet, instead of betting double on the second team, you bet an equal amount on the second team.
It is possible to avoid two calls to the bookmaker and secure the existing line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you want to make an "if" bet. "If" bets can be made on two games kicking off at the same time. The bookmaker will wait until the first game is over. If the first game wins, he'll put an equal amount on the next game though it was already played.
Although an "if" bet is really two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that you no longer want the second bet. Once you make an "if" bet, the second bet cannot be cancelled, even if the next game have not gone off yet. If the initial game wins, you will have action on the next game. For that reason, there is less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. Once the two games you bet overlap with time, however, the only method to bet one only if another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Of course, when two games overlap in time, cancellation of the next game bet is not an issue. It ought to be noted, that when the two games start at different times, most books won't allow you to fill in the second game later. You need to designate both teams when you make the bet.
You can create an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I want to make an 'if' bet," and then, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction would be the identical to betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and then, only if Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the initial team in the "if" bet loses, there is absolutely no bet on the second team. No matter whether the second team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet will be $110 when you lose on the first team. If the first team wins, however, you would have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the second team. If so, if the next team loses, your total loss would be just the $10 of vig on the split of the two teams. If both games win, you would win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a total win of $200. Thus, the utmost loss on an "if" will be $110, and the utmost win will be $200. This is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the full $110, instead of just $10 of vig, each and every time the teams split with the initial team in the bet losing.
As you can plainly see, it matters a good deal which game you put first in an "if" bet. In the event that you put the loser first in a split, you then lose your full bet. If you split however the loser may be the second team in the bet, you then only lose the vig.
Bettors soon discovered that the way to steer clear of the uncertainty due to the order of wins and loses would be to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Instead of betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you'll bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and create a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The second bet would put Team B first and Team A second. This sort of double bet, reversing the order of exactly the same two teams, is called an "if/reverse" or sometimes only a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't need to state both bets. You only tell the clerk you need to bet a "reverse," both teams, and the amount.
If both teams win, the effect would be the same as if you played a single "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the first "if bet, and $50 on Team B, for a total win of $100. In the second "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and $50 on Team A, for a complete win of $100. Both "if" bets together result in a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the effect would also function as same as in the event that you played an individual "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would set you back $55 in the initial "if" combination, and nothing would look at Team B. In the second combination, Team B's loss would set you back $55 and nothing would look at to Team A. You would lose $55 on each one of the bets for a complete maximum loss of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs once the teams split. Instead of losing $110 when the first team loses and the second wins, and $10 when the first team wins but the second loses, in the reverse you will lose $60 on a split whichever team wins and which loses. It works out this way. If Team A loses you will lose $55 on the first combination, and have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the second combination, you'll win $50 on Team B, and also have action on Team A for a $55 loss, producing a net loss on the next mix of $5 vig. The loss of $55 on the initial "if" bet and $5 on the next "if" bet offers you a combined loss of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you will lose the $5 vig on the first combination and the $55 on the second combination for exactly the same $60 on the split..
We have accomplished this smaller lack of $60 instead of $110 when the first team loses without decrease in the win when both teams win. In both single $110 "if" bet and both reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers could not put themselves at that type of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the extra $50 loss ($60 instead of $10) whenever Team B may be the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us any money, but it has the advantage of making the risk more predictable, and preventing the worry concerning which team to place first in the "if" bet.
(What follows is an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations offer you a headache, skip them and write down the rules. I'll summarize the rules in an an easy task to copy list in my own next article.)
As with parlays, the overall rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, if you can win more than 52.5% or even more of your games. If you fail to consistently achieve a winning percentage, however, making "if" bets whenever you bet two teams can save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds an element of luck to your betting equation that doesn't belong there. If 8us are worth betting, they should both be bet. Betting on one should not be made dependent on whether you win another. Alternatively, for the bettor who has a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the second team whenever the initial team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the point that he is not betting the next game when both lose. When compared to straight bettor, the "if" bettor has an additional expense of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, anything that keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets decrease the amount of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is strictly opposite. Anything that keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and for that reason "if" bets will definitely cost the winning handicapper money. Once the winning bettor plays fewer games, he's got fewer winners. Understand that next time someone lets you know that the way to win is to bet fewer games. A good winner never wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" workout a similar as "if" bets, they both place the winner at the same disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - Whenever a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
Much like all rules, there are exceptions. "If" bets and parlays should be made by successful with a confident expectation in only two circumstances::
When there is no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or perhaps a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I can think of that you have no other choice is if you are the best man at your friend's wedding, you're waiting to walk down the aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of your tux and that means you left it in the car, you only bet offshore in a deposit account with no line of credit, the book includes a $50 minimum phone bet, you like two games which overlap in time, you grab your trusty cell 5 minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you need to walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your own arm, you make an effort to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you merely have $75 in your account.
Because the old philosopher used to say, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If that's the case, hold your head up high, put a smile on your face, search for the silver lining, and create a $50 "if" bet on your own two teams. Of course you can bet a parlay, but as you will notice below, the "if/reverse" is a superb substitute for the parlay if you are winner.
For the winner, the best method is straight betting. In the case of co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, you will find a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor is getting the advantage of increased parlay odds of 13-5 on combined bets that have greater than the standard expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets should always be contained within the same game, they must be made as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage originates from the point that we make the second bet only IF among the propositions wins.
It could do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favourite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We would simply lose the vig regardless of how usually the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favourite and over and the underdog and under, we are able to net a $160 win when among our combinations comes in. When to find the parlay or the "reverse" when coming up with co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Based on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when one of our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay without the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win will be $180 every time among our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse minus the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
Whenever a split occurs and the under will come in with the favorite, or higher will come in with the underdog, the parlay will eventually lose $110 while the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" includes a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay has a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay will be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we have been not in a 50-50 situation. If the favorite covers the high spread, it is much more likely that the game will go over the comparatively low total, and if the favorite fails to cover the high spread, it is more likely that the game will under the total. As we have previously seen, if you have a positive expectation the "if/reverse" is really a superior bet to the parlay. The actual probability of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends on how close the lines on the side and total are to one another, but the fact that they're co-dependent gives us a positive expectation.
The point where the "if/reverse" becomes a better bet than the parlay when making our two co-dependent is really a 72% win-rate. This is simply not as outrageous a win-rate as it sounds. When making two combinations, you have two chances to win. You merely need to win one out from the two. Each one of the combinations has an independent positive expectation. If we assume the opportunity of either the favorite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or the other must win) then all we need is a 72% probability that whenever, for instance, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the overall game will go over the total 53 � at least 72% of that time period as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we are only � point away from a win. A BC cover can lead to an over 72% of the time isn't an unreasonable assumption beneath the circumstances.
As compared to a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win an extra $4 seventy-two times, for a complete increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" may cause us to lose an extra $10 the 28 times that the results split for a total increased lack of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."