"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that when your book offers "if/reverses," it is possible to play those rather than parlays. Some of you might not understand how to bet an "if/reverse." A full explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, together with the situations in which each is best..
An "if" bet is strictly what it appears like. You bet Team A and when it wins you then place the same amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at different times is a kind of "if" bet in which you bet on the initial team, and when it wins without a doubt double on the second team. With a true "if" bet, rather than betting double on the second team, you bet the same amount on the next team.
You can avoid two calls to the bookmaker and secure the existing line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you would like to make an "if" bet. "If" bets may also be made on two games kicking off concurrently. The bookmaker will wait until the first game is over. If the initial game wins, he'll put an equal amount on the second game though it has already been played.
Although an "if" bet is in fact two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that you no longer want the next bet. As soon as you make an "if" bet, the next bet cannot be cancelled, even if the next game have not gone off yet. If the initial game wins, you should have action on the second game. Because of this, there's less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. Once the two games you bet overlap with time, however, the only way to bet one only if another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Needless to say, when two games overlap with time, cancellation of the next game bet is not an issue. It ought to be noted, that when the two games start at different times, most books will not allow you to complete the next game later. You must designate both teams once you make the bet.
You can create an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I wish to make an 'if' bet," and then, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction would be the identical to betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and then, only when Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the first team in the "if" bet loses, there is absolutely no bet on the next team. Whether or not the second team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet would be $110 when you lose on the initial team. If the first team wins, however, you'll have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the next team. If so, if the second team loses, your total loss will be just the $10 of vig on the split of the two teams. If both games win, you would win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a total win of $200. Thus, the maximum loss on an "if" will be $110, and the maximum win will be $200. That is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the full $110, instead of just $10 of vig, each time the teams split with the first team in the bet losing.
As you can see, it matters a great deal which game you put first in an "if" bet. In the event that you put the loser first in a split, you then lose your full bet. If you split but the loser may be the second team in the bet, then you only lose the vig.
Bettors soon discovered that the way to avoid the uncertainty caused by the order of wins and loses is to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Instead of betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you'll bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and make a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The next bet would put Team B first and Team A second. This type of double bet, reversing the order of the same two teams, is called an "if/reverse" or sometimes just a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't have to state both bets. You only tell the clerk you would like to bet a "reverse," the two teams, and the amount.
If both teams win, the result would be the identical to if you played a single "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the first "if bet, and then $50 on Team B, for a complete win of $100. In the second "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and $50 on Team A, for a total win of $100. Both "if" bets together result in a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the result would also be the same as in the event that you played an individual "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would set you back $55 in the first "if" combination, and nothing would go onto Team B. In the next combination, Team B's loss would cost you $55 and nothing would look at to Team A. You would lose $55 on each one of the bets for a complete maximum lack of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs when the teams split. Instead of losing $110 once the first team loses and the second wins, and $10 when the first team wins but the second loses, in the reverse you'll lose $60 on a split whichever team wins and which loses. It works out this way. If Team A loses you will lose $55 on the first combination, and have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the second combination, you will win $50 on Team B, and have action on Team A for a $55 loss, resulting in a net loss on the second combination of $5 vig. The increased loss of $55 on the initial "if" bet and $5 on the second "if" bet gives you a combined lack of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you'll lose the $5 vig on the initial combination and the $55 on the second combination for exactly the same $60 on the split..
We have accomplished this smaller lack of $60 instead of $110 when the first team loses without reduction in the win when both teams win. In both single $110 "if" bet and the two reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers would never put themselves at that sort of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the excess $50 loss ($60 rather than $10) whenever Team B may be the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us hardly any money, but it has the advantage of making the risk more predictable, and avoiding the worry concerning which team to place first in the "if" bet.
(What follows can be an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations give you a headache, skip them and write down the rules. I'll summarize the guidelines in an easy to copy list in my own next article.)
As with parlays, the general rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, if you can win more than 52.5% or even more of your games. If you fail to consistently achieve a winning percentage, however, making "if" bets once you bet two teams can save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds some luck to your betting equation that doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, they should both be bet. Betting on one shouldn't be made dependent on whether you win another. However, for the bettor who includes a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the second team whenever the first team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the truth that he could be not betting the next game when both lose. When compared to straight bettor, the "if" bettor comes with an additional expense of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, anything that keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets reduce the number of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is exactly opposite. Anything that keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and for that reason "if" bets will definitely cost the winning handicapper money. When the winning bettor plays fewer games, he's got fewer winners. Understand that the next time someone lets you know that the best way to win would be to bet fewer games. A good winner never really wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" work out a similar as "if" bets, they both place the winner at the same disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - Whenever a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
As with all rules, there are exceptions. "If" bets and parlays ought to be made by successful with a confident expectation in mere two circumstances::
When there is no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or perhaps a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I can think of that you have no other choice is if you are the best man at your friend's wedding, you're waiting to walk down the aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of one's tux so you left it in the automobile, you only bet offshore in a deposit account with no line of credit, the book includes a $50 minimum phone bet, you prefer two games which overlap in time, you grab your trusty cell five minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you must walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your own arm, you try to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you only have $75 in your account.
As the old philosopher used to state, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If so, hold your mind up high, put a smile on your face, search for the silver lining, and create a $50 "if" bet on your two teams. Needless to say you could bet a parlay, but as you will notice below, the "if/reverse" is a great substitute for the parlay in case you are winner.
For the winner, the very best method is straight betting. In the case of co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, you will find a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor gets the advantage of increased parlay odds of 13-5 on combined bets that have greater than the normal expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets must always be contained within exactly the same game, they must be produced as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage comes from the fact that we make the next bet only IF one of the propositions wins.
It would do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favorite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. New88 would simply lose the vig regardless of how often the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favourite and over and the underdog and under, we are able to net a $160 win when among our combinations will come in. When to choose the parlay or the "reverse" when coming up with co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Predicated on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when among our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay without the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win would be $180 every time one of our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse minus the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
Whenever a split occurs and the under will come in with the favorite, or higher will come in with the underdog, the parlay will eventually lose $110 while the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" includes a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay has a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay would be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we have been not in a 50-50 situation. If the favorite covers the high spread, it is more likely that the overall game will go over the comparatively low total, and when the favorite does not cover the high spread, it really is more likely that the overall game will under the total. As we have already seen, once you have a positive expectation the "if/reverse" is a superior bet to the parlay. The specific possibility of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends upon how close the lines privately and total are one to the other, but the fact that they are co-dependent gives us a confident expectation.
The point where the "if/reverse" becomes a better bet than the parlay when making our two co-dependent is really a 72% win-rate. This is simply not as outrageous a win-rate since it sounds. When coming up with two combinations, you have two chances to win. You only need to win one out of the two. Each of the combinations comes with an independent positive expectation. If we assume the opportunity of either the favourite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or the other must win) then all we need is a 72% probability that whenever, for example, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the game will go over the total 53 � at the very least 72% of that time period as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we have been only � point from a win. A BC cover can lead to an over 72% of the time isn't an unreasonable assumption beneath the circumstances.
Compared to a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win a supplementary $4 seventy-two times, for a complete increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" may cause us to lose an extra $10 the 28 times that the results split for a total increased loss of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."