"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that when your book offers "if/reverses," it is possible to play those instead of parlays. Some of you may not know how to bet an "if/reverse." A full explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, combined with the situations in which each is best..
An "if" bet is exactly what it appears like. You bet Team A and when it wins then you place an equal amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at different times is a type of "if" bet in which you bet on the initial team, and if it wins you bet double on the second team. With a genuine "if" bet, instead of betting double on the second team, you bet an equal amount on the next team.
It is possible to avoid two calls to the bookmaker and secure the existing line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you need to make an "if" bet. "If" bets can be made on two games kicking off simultaneously. The bookmaker will wait before first game is over. If the initial game wins, he will put the same amount on the next game though it has already been played.
Although an "if" bet is actually two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that so long as want the next bet. As soon as you make an "if" bet, the next bet can't be cancelled, even if the next game has not gone off yet. If the initial game wins, you will have action on the next game. Because of this, there is less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. Once the two games you bet overlap in time, however, the only way to bet one only if another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Needless to say, when two games overlap in time, cancellation of the next game bet isn't an issue. It ought to be noted, that when the two games start at differing times, most books will not allow you to complete the second game later. You need to designate both teams once you make the bet.
You can create an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I want to make an 'if' bet," and then, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction would be the identical to betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and then, only if Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the first team in the "if" bet loses, there is absolutely no bet on the second team. Whether or not the next team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet will be $110 when you lose on the first team. If the initial team wins, however, you would have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the next team. If so, if the next team loses, your total loss will be just the $10 of vig on the split of the two teams. If both games win, you would win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a total win of $200. Thus, the maximum loss on an "if" would be $110, and the maximum win would be $200. That is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the full $110, instead of just $10 of vig, every time the teams split with the initial team in the bet losing.
As you can see, it matters a good deal which game you put first within an "if" bet. In the event that you put the loser first in a split, then you lose your full bet. If you split however the loser may be the second team in the bet, you then only lose the vig.
Bettors soon discovered that the way to steer clear of the uncertainty caused by the order of wins and loses is to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Rather than betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you would bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and make a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The next bet would put Team B first and Team Another. This type of double bet, reversing the order of exactly the same two teams, is called an "if/reverse" or sometimes just a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't need to state both bets. You only tell the clerk you want to bet a "reverse," both teams, and the amount.
If both teams win, the effect would be the same as if you played an individual "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the initial "if bet, and $50 on Team B, for a total win of $100. In the next "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and $50 on Team A, for a complete win of $100. Both "if" bets together create a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the result would also be the same as in the event that you played an individual "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would set you back $55 in the first "if" combination, and nothing would look at Team B. In the next combination, Team B's loss would set you back $55 and nothing would go onto to Team A. You would lose $55 on each of the bets for a complete maximum loss of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs when the teams split. Instead of losing $110 once the first team loses and the next wins, and $10 when the first team wins however the second loses, in the reverse you'll lose $60 on a split no matter which team wins and which loses. It works out this way. If Team A loses you'll lose $55 on the initial combination, and also have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the second combination, you will win $50 on Team B, and have action on Team A for a $55 loss, resulting in a net loss on the next mix of $5 vig. The loss of $55 on the initial "if" bet and $5 on the next "if" bet gives you a combined loss of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you will lose the $5 vig on the initial combination and the $55 on the second combination for exactly the same $60 on the split..
We have accomplished this smaller lack of $60 instead of $110 when the first team loses without decrease in the win when both teams win. In both single $110 "if" bet and the two reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers could not put themselves at that sort of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the excess $50 loss ($60 rather than $10) whenever Team B may be the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us hardly any money, but it does have the benefit of making the chance more predictable, and avoiding the worry concerning which team to put first in the "if" bet.
(What follows is an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations provide you with a headache, skip them and simply write down the guidelines. I'll summarize the guidelines in an an easy task to copy list in my own next article.)
As with parlays, the overall rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, if you can win a lot more than 52.5% or more of your games. If you cannot consistently achieve a winning percentage, however, making "if" bets once you bet two teams will save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds an element of luck to your betting equation it doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, they should both be bet. Betting on one shouldn't be made dependent on whether or not you win another. Alternatively, for the bettor who includes a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the next team whenever the first team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the fact that he is not betting the second game when both lose. When compared to straight bettor, the "if" bettor comes with an additional cost of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, whatever keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets reduce the number of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is exactly opposite. Anything that keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and therefore "if" bets will definitely cost the winning handicapper money. When the winning bettor plays fewer games, he has fewer winners. Understand that the next time someone tells you that the way to win is to bet fewer games. A smart winner never wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" workout exactly the same as "if" bets, they both place the winner at an equal disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - Whenever a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
Much like all rules, there are exceptions. "If" bets and parlays should be made by successful with a positive expectation in mere two circumstances::
When there is no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I can think of that you have no other choice is if you are the best man at your friend's wedding, you're waiting to walk down the aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of one's tux so you left it in the automobile, you merely bet offshore in a deposit account without line of credit, the book has a $50 minimum phone bet, you like two games which overlap with time, you grab your trusty cell five minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you must walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your own arm, you try to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you merely have $75 in your account.
Because the old philosopher used to say, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If so, hold your mind up high, put a smile on your own face, search for the silver lining, and create a $50 "if" bet on your own two teams. Needless to say you could bet a parlay, but as you will see below, the "if/reverse" is an excellent substitute for the parlay for anyone who is winner.
For the winner, the best method is straight betting. In the case of co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, there exists a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor gets the advantage of increased parlay probability of 13-5 on combined bets that have greater than the standard expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets should always be contained within exactly the same game, they must be made as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage originates from the truth that we make the second bet only IF one of many propositions wins.
It would do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favorite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We'd simply lose the vig no matter how usually the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favourite and over and the underdog and under, we are able to net a $160 win when among our combinations comes in. When to choose the parlay or the "reverse" when making co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Based on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the intended purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when one of our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay minus the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win will be $180 every time one of our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse minus the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
Whenever a split occurs and the under comes in with the favorite, or higher comes in with the underdog, the parlay will lose $110 while the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" has a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay has a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay will be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we are not in a 50-50 situation. If the favourite covers the high spread, it is more likely that the game will go over the comparatively low total, and if the favorite does not cover the high spread, it is more likely that the overall game will beneath the total. As we have already seen, if you have a positive expectation the "if/reverse" is a superior bet to the parlay. The actual probability of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends upon how close the lines privately and total are to one another, but the fact that they are co-dependent gives us a confident expectation.
The point where the "if/reverse" becomes an improved bet compared to the parlay when coming up with our two co-dependent is really a 72% win-rate. This is not as outrageous a win-rate since it sounds. When coming up with two combinations, you have two chances to win. You only need to win one out of the two. đá gà sv288 of the combinations has an independent positive expectation. If we assume the opportunity of either the favorite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or another must win) then all we need is a 72% probability that when, for example, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the overall game will go over the total 53 � at least 72% of the time as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we are only � point away from a win. A BC cover will result in an over 72% of the time is not an unreasonable assumption beneath the circumstances.
Compared to a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win an extra $4 seventy-two times, for a complete increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" may cause us to lose a supplementary $10 the 28 times that the results split for a total increased lack of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."